Quick Takeaways
- Canadian light vehicle demand stayed fundamentally resilient in 2025 despite visible month-to-month volatility driven by policy and incentive effects.
- Full-year sales performance exceeded expectations, underlining market stability even amid tariffs, pricing pressure, and shifting OEM dynamics.
DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Reports Canada Light Vehicle Sales 2025
On January 6, DesRosiers Automotive Consultants reported that Canadian light vehicle sales reached around 126,000 units in December, marking a 7.3% decline compared with December 2024. This drop came despite December 2025 having one additional selling day. The comparison was challenging, as December 2024 stood out as one of the strongest Decembers ever recorded.
That earlier surge was largely driven by Quebec consumers accelerating purchases of zero-emission vehicles ahead of the end of provincial incentive programs. As a result, the year-on-year comparison created a high base that weighed on December 2025 performance.
DesRosiers Automotive Consultants sales data highlights December trends
According to DesRosiers Automotive Consultants, the seasonally adjusted annual rate for December stood at 1.92 million units. While lower monthly volumes were evident, the SAAR level suggested that underlying demand remained resilient despite policy changes, pricing pressures, and ongoing trade-related uncertainty affecting buyer sentiment.
The December outcome reinforced the view that short-term volatility is masking a fundamentally stable market rather than signaling a sharp downturn.
DesRosiers Automotive Consultants outlook for full-year 2025 performance
For the full year, DesRosiers Automotive Consultants estimated total Canadian light vehicle sales at 1.90 million units. This represents a 2.0% increase over the previous year and exceeded many expectations formed earlier in the year amid tariff and counter-tariff developments.
The 2025 total marked the strongest annual performance since 2019, when sales reached 1.93 million units. It also ranked as the sixth best year on record, highlighting the market’s ability to withstand economic and regulatory headwinds.
OEM performance shaped DesRosiers Automotive Consultants market analysis
Manufacturer-level results revealed a competitive and diverse sales landscape in 2025:
These results underline shifting competitive dynamics and the growing importance of supply chain flexibility and regional production strategies.
DesRosiers Automotive Consultants expectations for Canada light vehicle sales outlook
Looking ahead, Scotiabank projects that Canadian light vehicle sales will remain relatively stable in the near term before strengthening in the second half of next year. Forecasts point to sales of about 1.84 million units in 2026, followed by a modest increase to 1.87 million units in 2027.
Together, these projections suggest a market transitioning from short-term uncertainty toward gradual, demand-led growth.
On January 6, DesRosiers Automotive Consultants reported that Canadian light vehicle sales reached around 126,000 units in December, marking a 7.3% decline compared with December 2024. This drop came despite December 2025 having one additional selling day. The comparison was challenging, as December 2024 stood out as one of the strongest Decembers ever recorded.
That earlier surge was largely driven by Quebec consumers accelerating purchases of zero-emission vehicles ahead of the end of provincial incentive programs. As a result, the year-on-year comparison created a high base that weighed on December 2025 performance.
DesRosiers Automotive Consultants sales data highlights December trends
According to DesRosiers Automotive Consultants, the seasonally adjusted annual rate for December stood at 1.92 million units. While lower monthly volumes were evident, the SAAR level suggested that underlying demand remained resilient despite policy changes, pricing pressures, and ongoing trade-related uncertainty affecting buyer sentiment.
The December outcome reinforced the view that short-term volatility is masking a fundamentally stable market rather than signaling a sharp downturn.
DesRosiers Automotive Consultants outlook for full-year 2025 performance
For the full year, DesRosiers Automotive Consultants estimated total Canadian light vehicle sales at 1.90 million units. This represents a 2.0% increase over the previous year and exceeded many expectations formed earlier in the year amid tariff and counter-tariff developments.
The 2025 total marked the strongest annual performance since 2019, when sales reached 1.93 million units. It also ranked as the sixth best year on record, highlighting the market’s ability to withstand economic and regulatory headwinds.
OEM performance shaped DesRosiers Automotive Consultants market analysis
Manufacturer-level results revealed a competitive and diverse sales landscape in 2025:
- General Motors ended the year as the overall market leader with just under 300,000 units sold
- Ford followed closely, finishing fewer than 6,000 units behind after leading earlier in the year
- Several brands achieved record annual sales, including Audi, Cadillac, Genesis, GMC, Hyundai, Kia, Lexus, Lincoln, Subaru, Toyota, Volkswagen, and Volvo
- Tesla experienced a sales decline of more than 60% over the year, although volumes showed signs of recovery toward year-end as Berlin-built Model Y vehicles entered Canada without counter-tariff impacts
These results underline shifting competitive dynamics and the growing importance of supply chain flexibility and regional production strategies.
DesRosiers Automotive Consultants expectations for Canada light vehicle sales outlook
Looking ahead, Scotiabank projects that Canadian light vehicle sales will remain relatively stable in the near term before strengthening in the second half of next year. Forecasts point to sales of about 1.84 million units in 2026, followed by a modest increase to 1.87 million units in 2027.
Together, these projections suggest a market transitioning from short-term uncertainty toward gradual, demand-led growth.
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