Quick Takeaways
- Japan’s auto market is set for a second straight year of recovery, supported by new model launches and policy relief.
- Tax revisions and steady demand across segments keep 2026 sales momentum intact despite geopolitical risks.
Recently, the Japan new vehicle sales forecast 2026 indicates a positive outlook for the country’s automotive market, with total new vehicle sales expected to reach 4.66 million units. This represents a year-over-year increase of 2.4 percent compared with the 2025 outlook, signaling a second consecutive year of market expansion.
Japan New Vehicle Sales Forecast 2026 Driven by Product Launches
The expected growth is closely linked to new model introductions following the Japan Mobility Show 2025, held in autumn 2025. Vehicles unveiled during the event are anticipated to reach the market in 2026, improving showroom activity and supporting steady demand recovery across passenger vehicle segments.
Tax Revisions Support Japan New Vehicle Sales Forecast 2026
Demand is also expected to benefit from tax-related changes announced under the tax system revision at the end of 2025, including:
Market Risks Remain, but Sales Outlook Stays Positive
Despite the optimistic forecast, risks remain. Ongoing concerns surrounding Japan-China relations may impact the domestic economy and automotive supply chains. However, unless major production disruptions occur, total vehicle sales are still expected to exceed the previous year’s level.
Registered Vehicles and Mini-Vehicles Show Stable Growth
Sales of new registered vehicles in Japan are projected to reach approximately 2.98 million units in 2026. Toyota Motor Corporation, which maintains the largest market share, has communicated a sales target of around 1.5 million units for 2026, matching its fiscal 2025 level.
The mini-vehicle segment is also expected to record modest growth, with sales forecast to increase slightly from 2025 levels to around 1.68 million units, reinforcing its continued importance in Japan’s overall automotive market.
Japan New Vehicle Sales Forecast 2026 Driven by Product Launches
The expected growth is closely linked to new model introductions following the Japan Mobility Show 2025, held in autumn 2025. Vehicles unveiled during the event are anticipated to reach the market in 2026, improving showroom activity and supporting steady demand recovery across passenger vehicle segments.
Tax Revisions Support Japan New Vehicle Sales Forecast 2026
Demand is also expected to benefit from tax-related changes announced under the tax system revision at the end of 2025, including:
- Abolition of environmental performance taxes
- Temporary removal of gasoline and light fuel oil taxes
Market Risks Remain, but Sales Outlook Stays Positive
Despite the optimistic forecast, risks remain. Ongoing concerns surrounding Japan-China relations may impact the domestic economy and automotive supply chains. However, unless major production disruptions occur, total vehicle sales are still expected to exceed the previous year’s level.
Registered Vehicles and Mini-Vehicles Show Stable Growth
Sales of new registered vehicles in Japan are projected to reach approximately 2.98 million units in 2026. Toyota Motor Corporation, which maintains the largest market share, has communicated a sales target of around 1.5 million units for 2026, matching its fiscal 2025 level.
The mini-vehicle segment is also expected to record modest growth, with sales forecast to increase slightly from 2025 levels to around 1.68 million units, reinforcing its continued importance in Japan’s overall automotive market.
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