- Deutsche Bank expects Nio's Q2 non-GAAP net profit to rise to around 180 million yuan.
- Strong ES9 and ES8 SUV demand has lifted delivery forecasts and financial expectations for 2026.
Strong demand for premium SUV models is expected to support a significant improvement in the Nio Q2 Profit Outlook. Analysts at Nio believe the company's high-margin vehicle portfolio is helping strengthen profitability, while delivery momentum continues to accelerate across key models. According to a research note from Deutsche Bank, the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer could report a non-GAAP net profit of approximately 180 million yuan ($26.5 million) during the second quarter. The projection reflects continued improvements in operating efficiency, stable margins, and robust customer demand.
The forecast represents a 304% quarter-on-quarter increase in non-GAAP earnings. Analysts indicated that stable gross margins remain the primary factor supporting the projected profit expansion. Vehicle margin guidance of 17% to 18% is considered achievable due to a greater contribution from the ES8 and ES9 SUVs, both of which carry higher profit margins than many other models in the lineup. In addition, relatively stable marketing and promotional spending has helped reduce pressure on operating costs.
ES9 SUV Demand Exceeds Expectations
The newly launched ES9 flagship SUV has emerged as one of the strongest contributors to the company's recent performance. Management recently confirmed that the 10,000th ES9 delivery is expected to be completed in June, a milestone that exceeded broader market expectations. Analysts believe this indicates June ES9 deliveries could surpass 7,000 units, compared with an earlier estimate of 6,000 units.
As a result of this stronger-than-expected performance, Deutsche Bank increased its full-year 2026 ES9 delivery forecast to 56,000 units. The model's growing popularity is supported by a substantial order pipeline, with estimates suggesting more than 25,000 non-cancellable customer orders have already been secured. Strong demand has also resulted in extended delivery waiting periods across multiple vehicle configurations.
Estimated ES9 Delivery Waiting Periods
| ES9 Variant | Estimated Wait Time |
|---|---|
| Entry-Level Version | 8–9 Weeks |
| Advanced Suspension Versions | 16–17 Weeks |
Higher Delivery Forecasts Improve Financial Expectations
Improving vehicle demand has prompted analysts to revise several financial assumptions upward. Deutsche Bank now expects total 2026 deliveries for Nio to reach 450,000 units, representing a 38% year-on-year increase. Based on these stronger volume expectations, the bank reduced its projected 2026 reported loss by 35.4% and increased its target price to HK$86.00 from HK$84.50.
The upward revisions are supported by a rapidly expanding order backlog. Estimates suggest total new orders reached approximately 84,000 units in May, nearly doubling from the previous month. Analysts attribute most of this increase to the successful rollout of the company's latest SUV models, which continue to attract significant consumer interest in the premium electric vehicle segment.
Competition Intensifies in China's Premium SUV Segment
As delivery volumes increase, competition within the premium SUV market in China is becoming more intense. Rivalry between Nio and Li Auto has become increasingly visible as both manufacturers seek to strengthen their positions in the large SUV category.
Recent discussions between the companies gained public attention after Nio's vice president of branding and communications, Ma Lin, questioned the authenticity and testing conditions of a suspension comparison video published through Li Auto's official channels. The video compared chassis and suspension performance between the Li L9 and the Nio ES9, leading to broader industry discussions regarding testing methodologies and transparency.
ES8 Continues Delivering Strong Results
Alongside the ES9, the ES8 remains a key contributor to overall sales performance. Company president and co-founder Qin Lihong stated that cumulative deliveries of the all-new ES8 are expected to reach 120,000 units during the current month. The model delivered 11,475 units in May, extending its streak of monthly deliveries above 10,000 units to seven consecutive months.
The sustained success of both SUV models highlights the company's growing strength in the premium electric vehicle market. Strong customer acceptance of these vehicles has improved manufacturing utilization, supported margins, and contributed to greater confidence in future profitability.
Profitability Trend Remains Intact
The company had already demonstrated encouraging financial progress during the first quarter. Adjusted operating profit reached 66.8 million yuan, marking the second consecutive quarter in which the business maintained a non-GAAP profitability trend. Gross margin also improved significantly, reaching 19.0% during the period.
Momentum continued into the second quarter as vehicle deliveries accelerated further. The company delivered 37,705 vehicles in May, achieving its highest monthly delivery volume of the year. Looking ahead, management expects second-quarter deliveries to range between 110,000 and 115,000 units. Based on deliveries already completed during the first two months of the quarter, June deliveries are projected to fall between 43,000 and 48,000 units, potentially setting another strong performance benchmark.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does Deutsche Bank expect higher profitability for Nio in the second quarter?
Deutsche Bank expects stronger profitability because higher-margin ES8 and ES9 SUV models are contributing a larger share of total sales. Stable vehicle margins, controlled marketing expenses, and accelerating delivery volumes are also supporting earnings growth. The bank forecasts a non-GAAP net profit of around 180 million yuan, reflecting a substantial quarter-on-quarter improvement and continued operational efficiency gains across the company's electric vehicle business.
What is driving demand for the Nio ES9 SUV?
The ES9 has attracted strong customer interest due to its flagship positioning in the premium SUV segment. Analysts estimate the model has already accumulated more than 25,000 non-cancellable orders, creating extended delivery wait times. Strong monthly delivery performance and increasing production volumes have encouraged analysts to raise full-year forecasts, making the ES9 one of the most important growth drivers for the company in 2026.
How many vehicles does Nio expect to deliver in the second quarter?
Nio expects second-quarter deliveries to reach between 110,000 and 115,000 units. The company has already reported strong delivery momentum during the first two months of the quarter, including a record 37,705 vehicle deliveries in May. Based on current trends, June deliveries are projected to range from 43,000 to 48,000 units, helping support revenue growth and profitability improvements.
How has Deutsche Bank changed its 2026 outlook for Nio?
Deutsche Bank increased its 2026 delivery forecast for Nio to 450,000 vehicles, representing a 38% year-on-year increase. The bank also raised its target price to HK$86.00 and reduced its projected reported loss for 2026 by 35.4%. These revisions reflect confidence in stronger SUV demand, improving financial performance, and the company's ability to maintain healthy vehicle margins.
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