Quick Takeaways
- China’s NEV market will still grow in 2026, but the era of explosive expansion is ending as the industry enters a more mature phase.
- Exports and electrification together will define China’s automotive momentum even as domestic demand softens.
CAAM China NEV Sales Forecast 2026 highlighted that China’s new energy vehicle market will continue expanding, though at a more measured pace. The outlook from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reflects how market maturity, shifting consumer demand, and global trade pressures are reshaping the trajectory of the world’s largest automotive market.
According to CAAM, China’s NEV sales are expected to reach 19 million units in 2026, representing a 15.2 percent year-on-year increase. While this growth rate is lower than previous years, it still confirms that electrification remains the core driver of China’s automotive industry.
CAAM China NEV Sales Forecast 2026 and overall market outlook
The CAAM China NEV Sales Forecast 2026 also provides a broader view of the passenger and commercial vehicle market. Total vehicle sales in China are projected to reach 34.75 million units in 2026, a 1 percent increase compared with 2025.
Passenger vehicle volumes are expected to rise to 30.25 million units, reflecting 0.5 percent growth, while commercial vehicle sales are forecast at 4.5 million units, showing a stronger 4.7 percent increase. This indicates that logistics, construction, and freight demand will support higher activity in the commercial vehicle segment.
NEV penetration continues to climb
One of the most important insights from the CAAM China NEV Sales Forecast 2026 is the sharp rise in electrification across the market. NEVs are projected to account for 54.7 percent of total vehicle sales in 2026, up from 47.9 percent in 2025.
This means that more than one in every two vehicles sold in China will be electric or plug-in hybrid, underscoring how deeply the transition to new energy mobility is embedded in consumer behavior and OEM product strategies.
Key factors supporting this rise include:
2025 performance sets the base
CAAM data shows that China sold 16.49 million NEVs in 2025, delivering a strong 28.2 percent year-on-year growth. Total vehicle sales reached 34.4 million units, marking a 9.4 percent increase and keeping China as the world’s largest automotive market for the 17th consecutive year.
These results created a high base, which explains why the 2026 growth rate is expected to normalize rather than accelerate further.
Exports remain a key pillar
China’s role as a global vehicle supplier continues to expand. The CAAM China NEV Sales Forecast 2026 projects automotive exports of 7.4 million units, a 4.3 percent increase over 2025.
In 2025, China exported 7.1 million vehicles, up 21.1 percent, including 2.62 million NEVs, which doubled year on year. This highlights how Chinese manufacturers are becoming major players in overseas electric vehicle markets, especially across Asia, Europe, and emerging regions.
Challenges in domestic demand and global trade
Despite the positive sales outlook, CAAM warned that domestic demand growth remains under pressure. Slower economic momentum and cautious household income expectations are limiting consumer purchasing power, especially for higher-priced vehicles.
At the same time, global uncertainties are complicating the export outlook. Trade tensions, geopolitical risks, and weaker global growth are making overseas expansion more complex for Chinese automakers, even as demand for NEVs remains strong.
Taken together, the CAAM China NEV Sales Forecast 2026 suggests that while growth is moderating, China’s automotive industry is moving into a more stable, export-driven, and electrified phase, reinforcing its leadership in the global transition toward new energy mobility.
According to CAAM, China’s NEV sales are expected to reach 19 million units in 2026, representing a 15.2 percent year-on-year increase. While this growth rate is lower than previous years, it still confirms that electrification remains the core driver of China’s automotive industry.
CAAM China NEV Sales Forecast 2026 and overall market outlook
The CAAM China NEV Sales Forecast 2026 also provides a broader view of the passenger and commercial vehicle market. Total vehicle sales in China are projected to reach 34.75 million units in 2026, a 1 percent increase compared with 2025.
Passenger vehicle volumes are expected to rise to 30.25 million units, reflecting 0.5 percent growth, while commercial vehicle sales are forecast at 4.5 million units, showing a stronger 4.7 percent increase. This indicates that logistics, construction, and freight demand will support higher activity in the commercial vehicle segment.
NEV penetration continues to climb
One of the most important insights from the CAAM China NEV Sales Forecast 2026 is the sharp rise in electrification across the market. NEVs are projected to account for 54.7 percent of total vehicle sales in 2026, up from 47.9 percent in 2025.
This means that more than one in every two vehicles sold in China will be electric or plug-in hybrid, underscoring how deeply the transition to new energy mobility is embedded in consumer behavior and OEM product strategies.
Key factors supporting this rise include:
- Continued government and local policy support
- Expanding charging and energy infrastructure
- Wider availability of affordable NEV models
- Growing consumer confidence in battery technology
2025 performance sets the base
CAAM data shows that China sold 16.49 million NEVs in 2025, delivering a strong 28.2 percent year-on-year growth. Total vehicle sales reached 34.4 million units, marking a 9.4 percent increase and keeping China as the world’s largest automotive market for the 17th consecutive year.
These results created a high base, which explains why the 2026 growth rate is expected to normalize rather than accelerate further.
Exports remain a key pillar
China’s role as a global vehicle supplier continues to expand. The CAAM China NEV Sales Forecast 2026 projects automotive exports of 7.4 million units, a 4.3 percent increase over 2025.
In 2025, China exported 7.1 million vehicles, up 21.1 percent, including 2.62 million NEVs, which doubled year on year. This highlights how Chinese manufacturers are becoming major players in overseas electric vehicle markets, especially across Asia, Europe, and emerging regions.
Challenges in domestic demand and global trade
Despite the positive sales outlook, CAAM warned that domestic demand growth remains under pressure. Slower economic momentum and cautious household income expectations are limiting consumer purchasing power, especially for higher-priced vehicles.
At the same time, global uncertainties are complicating the export outlook. Trade tensions, geopolitical risks, and weaker global growth are making overseas expansion more complex for Chinese automakers, even as demand for NEVs remains strong.
Taken together, the CAAM China NEV Sales Forecast 2026 suggests that while growth is moderating, China’s automotive industry is moving into a more stable, export-driven, and electrified phase, reinforcing its leadership in the global transition toward new energy mobility.
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