China NEV Monthly Sales Reach 1.11 Million in September

China NEV monthly sales are expected to reach about 1.11 million in September, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), as a quarter-end sales push and deliveries of new models support the market. The forecast represents a 10.5% increase from August's 1.005 million retail sales. NEVs are projected to account for 65.7% of passenger car retail sales, exceeding the previous record of 65.2% set in August, while the broader passenger vehicle market remains under pressure.

September NEV Retail Sales Outlook

The September outlook still points to weaker annual performance despite the expected monthly rebound. The projected 1.11 million NEV retail sales would be 14.35% below the level recorded a year earlier, compared with a 10% year-over-year decline in August. The China passenger car market is also expected to remain soft, with CPCA forecasting about 1.69 million retail sales, up 9.7% from August but down 24.6% from the same month last year.

Automaker Targets Remain Moderate

Seasonal demand has not produced the usual strength in automaker targets. Leading automakers representing more than 70% of total market sales have set September retail targets less than 10% above August, according to CPCA. That increase is weaker than the typical quarter-end pattern. September normally begins China's peak car-buying season, but CPCA said consumer expectations and underlying market fundamentals have not shown a fundamental improvement, limiting the scope for a stronger seasonal recovery.

Weekly Retail Sales Show Uneven Recovery

Early September retail activity shows how uneven the recovery has been. Major automakers' daily passenger car retail sales averaged 35,000 in the first week, 19.4% below a year earlier and 0.5% below the corresponding August period. The daily average increased to about 44,000 in the second week as peak-season promotions began, which was 7.5% above the comparable August period but still 25.8% below a year earlier. The figures indicate stronger short-term promotion effects without restoring prior-year demand.

Sales Pace Expected to Accelerate

CPCA expects the sales pace to accelerate as September progresses, although year-over-year comparisons remain unfavorable. Daily retail sales are forecast at about 56,000 in the third week, down 12.9% from a year earlier but up 23.2% from the corresponding August period. The fourth week is expected to average 70,000 per day, down 24.4% year over year but up 13.6% from August. In the fifth week, daily sales could reach 96,000 as demand builds before the National Day holiday and automakers work toward quarterly targets.

Fuel Prices and Broader Auto Market Pressure

The broader spending environment continues to weigh on China's auto market. Retail sales of consumer goods increased 1.1% year over year during the first eight months of the year, while auto retail sales declined 13.9%, indicating a widening weakness in vehicle demand relative to overall consumer spending. CPCA also said volatile and rising fuel prices have severely constrained a recovery in gasoline-powered vehicles. This pressure creates a difficult backdrop for conventional powertrains even as NEVs benefit from stronger order activity and delayed model deliveries.

NEV Orders and Incentives Support Demand

NEV demand has several supports that could help underpin September sales. CPCA said NEVs have a substantial order backlog, while new demand and deliveries of previously delayed new models are expected to contribute to retail volumes. Trade-in incentives and local subsidies are also continuing at their current pace, providing a floor for the September market. These factors support the projected monthly increase, but they do not remove the broader weakness in consumer expectations or the significant year-over-year decline anticipated for the overall passenger car market. The China Passenger Car Association expects these conditions to shape September's final retail outcome.

China NEV Monthly Sales by Month, 2024-2026

The following monthly sales data provides the reported and forecast NEV retail sales figures for 2024, 2025, and 2026. The 2026 series contains figures through September, while October through December remain blank because corresponding values were not provided in the shared data. The table preserves the supplied monthly values exactly, including commas, blank cells, and the distinction between historical and forecast periods.

Industry Impact & Outlook

The September outlook highlights a market in which NEV demand is receiving support from orders, model deliveries, promotions, trade-in incentives, and local subsidies while the wider passenger car market remains weak. For automakers, the combination of rising monthly sales expectations and substantial year-over-year declines may keep quarter-end competition focused on promotions and target fulfillment rather than broad-based demand expansion. The China Passenger Car Association projections also indicate that policy support and product activity remain important near-term factors, while consumer expectations and fuel-price volatility could continue shaping the balance between NEVs and gasoline-powered vehicles.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are China's projected September NEV retail sales?
The China Passenger Car Association expects passenger NEV retail sales to reach about 1.11 million in September, supported by quarter-end promotions and new model deliveries. This would represent a 10.5% increase from August's 1.005 million sales. NEVs are also forecast to account for 65.7% of passenger car retail sales, exceeding the August record of 65.2%. However, the September projection remains 14.35% below the same month a year earlier, showing that the anticipated monthly rebound is occurring within a broader market downturn.