- JATMA 2026 Japan automotive tire demand outlook increased modestly.
- Second-half shipment weakness may reduce annual tire volumes.
The Japan Automobile Tyre Manufacturers Association Inc (JATMA) announced on July 14 that it has revised its mid-year outlook for automotive tire demand in Japan for 2026. The association increased the projected shipment volume of automotive tires produced by Japanese manufacturers by 1.07 million units compared with the initial forecast released in December 2025. The updated projection now stands at 101.53 million units, although this remains 1.675 million units below the total shipment volume recorded during 2025.
Stronger First-Half Shipments Supported Forecast Revision
According to JATMA, shipment performance during the first half of 2026, covering January through June, exceeded earlier expectations. Demand remained healthy for both original equipment tires supplied to new vehicle manufacturers and replacement tires sold through the after-market. This stronger-than-expected performance prompted the association to revise its annual shipment outlook upward while keeping its underlying economic assumptions unchanged.
Updated 2026 Automotive Tire Shipment Forecast
The revised forecast reflects higher shipment expectations across both major tire segments, although each category is still expected to finish below the corresponding 2025 level.
Revised Shipment Volume by Tire Segment
| Segment | Revised 2026 Forecast | Increase vs Initial Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive Tires | 37.053 million units | 566,000 units |
| After-market Tires | 64.477 million units | 504,000 units |
Second-Half Slowdown Expected
Despite the encouraging first-half performance, JATMA expects shipment activity to weaken during the second half of 2026. The anticipated slowdown is projected to reduce overall annual shipment volumes, resulting in a full-year total that remains below the level achieved in 2025. As a result, the revised forecast reflects stronger near-term demand without changing the expectation of an overall year-on-year decline.
Economic Assumptions Remain Unchanged
JATMA stated that the assumptions supporting the revised outlook have not changed from those used in its original December 2025 forecast. The association continues to base its projections on the same expectations for real economic growth and automobile production volumes, indicating that the upward revision is driven primarily by stronger shipment performance during the first six months of 2026 rather than changes in the broader economic outlook.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did JATMA increase its 2026 automotive tire demand forecast for Japan?
JATMA raised its 2026 forecast because automotive tire shipments during the first half of the year were stronger than initially expected. Both original equipment tires supplied to vehicle manufacturers and replacement tires sold in the after-market performed well. Although this led to a higher annual projection of 101.53 million units, the association still expects total shipments for the year to remain below the 2025 level due to weaker demand anticipated during the second half of 2026.
What assumptions did JATMA use for its revised 2026 outlook?
JATMA maintained the same underlying assumptions used in its initial December 2025 forecast. The association did not revise its expectations for real economic growth or automobile production volumes. Instead, the updated outlook reflects stronger shipment results recorded between January and June 2026. While the first half exceeded expectations, JATMA believes slower shipment activity in the remaining months of the year will limit overall annual growth compared with the previous year's performance.
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