Chinese Automakers Could Reach 11% of US Market by 2038

2038 US Market Scenario

Chinese automakers could reach a significant share of the US new-vehicle market by 2038 if Washington eases restrictions on market access, according to a Mobility Global scenario. The firm estimates that sales could reach 1.7 million vehicles annually, equivalent to about 11% of the US new-car market. The forecast is conditional rather than a current sales projection: it assumes the United States eventually permits vehicles built in North America by Chinese manufacturers while high tariffs continue to make direct imports from China effectively unviable. Peter Nagle, Mobility Global’s associate director of US vehicle forecasting, presented the estimates to reporters in Detroit on September 23.

Policy Changes Drive the Forecast

Mobility Global modeled multiple possible paths, with the 11% outcome depending heavily on future policy decisions. Nagle said there is a “low-to-moderate probability” that barriers to North American-built vehicles would be lifted during the next decade, making regulatory and trade policy central to whether the scenario develops. The forecast therefore does not represent announced investment plans or a confirmed change in US rules. Instead, it describes a potential market outcome if access restrictions are relaxed. The firm was spun off from S&P Global in July, and its analysis places policy conditions alongside vehicle pricing and consumer demand as key variables.

Affordability Could Support Consumer Demand

Affordability is another major factor in the scenario. Nagle said new compact and midsize crossovers sold by Chinese manufacturers in other countries can cost about as much as the average used car in the United States. If comparable pricing were available to American buyers, lower purchase costs could attract consumers and create additional demand in a new-vehicle market where overall sales have remained largely flat in recent years. Under the modeled access conditions, BYD, Geely Auto, and SAIC Motor could begin exporting vehicles from factories in Mexico as early as 2029.

Potential Shift Toward US Manufacturing

The modeled entry path could later shift toward local US production. Mobility Global estimates that the companies could consider new US factories during the 2030s once annual US sales of popular models exceed about 40,000 vehicles each. That threshold is part of the firm's scenario rather than an investment commitment announced by the automakers. The analysis also estimates that market entry could generate about 600,000 additional new-car sales annually while taking roughly 1 million annual sales from existing competitors. Other Asian brands, including Nissan, Hyundai, and Toyota, were identified as likely to bear much of the modeled market-share loss as competition intensifies.

Trump Comments Do Not Change Market Rules

The forecast arrives while the United States and China are engaged in renewed high-level discussions. Chinese President Xi Jinping's Washington visit was scheduled for September 24, following his arrival ahead of the state visit, according to White House and other official reporting. President Donald Trump said in a September 11 Fox News interview that he would accept Chinese automakers building factories in the United States if they hired American workers, while opposing production in Mexico for export into the US. Those comments indicate a stated openness to domestic production, but they do not by themselves change market-access rules or establish a new pathway for vehicle sales.

US Industry Groups Seek Continued Restrictions

US industry groups continue to argue for maintaining restrictions on market access. Six major automotive industry groups jointly wrote to Trump on September 17 urging continued exclusion of Chinese manufacturers, including through local production, while some lawmakers have also opposed entry through direct imports or US manufacturing. The competing positions leave the policy framework unresolved: the modeled 2038 outcome requires a change that has not been announced. For manufacturers considering North American investment, the timing and terms of any future policy decision would therefore be important to factory location, supply-chain planning, pricing strategy, and the scale of any potential US launch.

US Brands Maintain a Presence in China

The competitive picture also has a reciprocal dimension because US automakers remain significant participants in China. According to China Passenger Car Association data cited in the September 2026 report, American brands sold 86,071 passenger vehicles at retail in China in August, representing 5.58% of total passenger-vehicle retail sales of 1,541,478 units. Chinese brands accounted for 69.90%, German brands 12.49%, Japanese brands 10.91%, Korean brands 0.61%, other European brands 0.39%, and French brands 0.13%. The figures provide context for the broader trade relationship, although they describe China's market and do not determine how US market-access policy will evolve.

China Passenger Car Retail Sales by Brand Origin

The September 2026 China Passenger Car Association data show how retail passenger-vehicle sales were distributed by brand origin in August. American brands represented 5.58% of the 1,541,478-unit market, while Chinese brands accounted for 69.90%. The distribution illustrates the existing competitive position of foreign brands in China and provides context for discussions about reciprocal market access between the two countries. These figures are separate from Mobility Global's US market scenario and should not be interpreted as a forecast of future US sales or as evidence that US policy will change.

Industry Impact & Outlook

If access restrictions were eased, the modeled entry of lower-priced vehicles could alter competition across the US passenger-car market, with effects extending from incumbent brands to dealers, suppliers, consumers, and potential North American manufacturing operations. A Mexico-based export route could represent an early production pathway under the scenario, while sufficiently strong US sales could support a later move toward domestic factories. The practical significance would depend on the specific tariffs, eligibility rules, investment requirements, and other market-access conditions ultimately adopted. Until such policies change, the 1.7 million-vehicle figure remains a conditional 2038 scenario rather than an announced sales or production target.

Frequently Asked Questions

What would need to change for this 2038 scenario to occur?
The scenario depends on the United States easing restrictions on vehicles built in North America by Chinese manufacturers while high tariffs continue to limit direct imports from China. Mobility Global also assumes sufficient consumer demand for competitively priced vehicles and a path from Mexico-based production toward possible US factories. Nagle characterized the probability of barriers being lifted over the next decade as low to moderate. The forecast is therefore conditional on policy changes and does not represent announced automaker investment plans.